A. Many so-called indicators for stocks and indexes take on complex hues, such as taking on moving averages of moving averages and so on.
B. A moving-average-based indicator will always be a little late, and you should naturally be suspicious of any ‘formula’ that can predict the next move, based purely on moving averages of price.
C. The moving average is simply a “smoothing” function – it gets rid of periodic volatility to tell you the recent trend.
D. At best, they can tell you a trend, and if the hypothesis is that the trend will sustain, and that bears out historically in enough instances, you might have a hope with it.
E. But smoothing has its disadvantages; it reacts slowly to sudden changes, so it will only tell you that the trend has changed after the trend has changed, sometimes too late to actually take action.